Does Anyone Know Anything?

Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman famously wrote “Nobody knows anything” in his 1983 book, Adventures in the Screen Trade. He was saying that no one in the movie business could predict a hit for sure. Every year a major film bombs while an unexpected film, often an indie, does well at the box office.

Goldman’s sentiment also applies in publishing, though a comparison of the two industries can be instructive to authors who are trying to figure out their best paths to success. The stakes are a bit lower in publishing, for one thing. Even a significant book puts the publisher at risk for losing an advance of several million dollars and a costly marketing campaign. It’s not chump change, but a book that fails to sell is not like a $200 million movie failing to “open,” as they say.

Authors also have more enduring brands and loyal audiences than movie stars and directors. Even a bad book by a famous author can sell well—even if it gets negative reviews. In some cases, the badness is a selling point. Readers want to know if the book is as bad as the critics say. Movies seldom enjoy that kind of benefit of the doubt.

For instance, and I feel as if I am dating myself, but I recall a deliciously snarky 1991 article called “The Old Man and the Novel” in the New York Times Magazine. It was about Norman Mailer and his herculean effort to complete “Harlot’s Ghost,” his 1300-page cold war tale of espionage intrigue.

The article described how the New York media world was full of buzz about the book, with the writer talking about how PR flacks were “beating the tom toms of hype” while offering that treasured commodity in book promo known as “advance word.”

“Harlot’s Ghost” was an inevitable hit, spending 18 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. It earned back its advance, so the publisher was pleased with the book in financial terms. Yet, the book got mixed reviews. It might be an example of “Somebody knows something” in the publishing industry: It’s hard to miss with a Norman Mailer novel, even if it’s questionable in terms of readability.

I mention Mailer and this episode partly because authors today still get advice from well-meaning friends and colleagues about book promotion based on cases like “Harlot’s Ghost” when authors and books like this barely exist today. And, the advice for promoting a Mailer book is not relevant for promoting lesser books. So, even though somebody knew something then about whether a book would be a hit, the inevitable changes in the industry and broader culture render this certainty obsolete.

Mailer was an international celebrity in 1991, a massive talent and richly rewarded author with numerous influential and successful books to his name. He was a cultural figure, as well, a fixture in the very New York literary and intellectual scene that waited for the “tom toms of hype” about his latest work. It is irrelevant, to the point of idiocy, to suggest that a little-known author today try to emulate the promotional process that put “Harlot’s Ghost” on the bestseller list.

I think people know this, but I still encounter authors who think that issuing a press release will get them booked on major talk shows and get their book reviewed in the Times—leading to bestseller status and fame. Or, they think that a book in a minor genre will receive the kind of media attention paid to a Norman Mailer book.

Who is giving out this bad advice? It’s everywhere, really. For sure, it’s for sale. All manner of vendors are offering services to promote your book and deliver Mailer-style results.  I would be circumspect about service offers and gratuitous advice from people who don’t know much, at least not anymore.

There are effective ways to promote a given book. The key is to align the promotion with the book itself, its intended audience, and realistic expectations. Some people know something today. It’s best to find them and listen carefully to what they have to say.

Photo by Bernard Gotfryd, 1967